SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 6, 2026
Creator

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Probability

75¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$4.7K

Liquidity

$56.2K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 6, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the winner of the Constructors’ Championship for the 2026 F1 season
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+1.0pp 7d
1007550250
75¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:04 UTC
updated 06:05:02 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-05Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 6, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 4841.9h

    LOW
  • 06:05Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 75¢.

updated 06:05:02 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:05:02 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventF1 Constructors' Champion
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Constructors’ Championship for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.” If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Sports

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

f1

Reason

Question text contains "f1" — matched the Sports keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:05:02 GMT, YES is priced at 75% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +1.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 6, 2026 (2026-12-06T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$4.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $652.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $56.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket