SportsExpires May 25, 2026
Creator

Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season?

Probability

12¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+2.5pp

24h Vol

$428.54

Liquidity

$797.91

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=disputed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA DISPUTED

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'disputed'.

Resolution is contested. Do not treat the current price as final until UMA settles.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 25, 2026
UMA status
disputed
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: disputed
  • Wide spread (8.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-45.1pp 7d
1007550250
12¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:14 UTC
updated 06:14:13 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-14Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 12¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    UMA status is disputed and the spread is extremely wide. Verify the resolution source before treating price as the market view.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 8.5¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: disputed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 25, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 161.8h

    LOW
  • 06:14Signal

    Resolution risk

    UMA status is disputed and the spread is extremely wide. Verify the resolution source before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

+2.5pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.

Biggest hourly move: -32.8pp at May 15, 08:00 UTC (to 14¢).

Show top 8 of 62 hourly moves
  • May 15, 09:00 UTC · -28.2pp → 14¢
  • May 15, 08:00 UTC · -32.8pp → 14¢
  • May 14, 06:00 UTC · -24.1pp → 4¢
  • May 14, 05:00 UTC · -24.6pp → 4¢
  • May 14, 04:00 UTC · -24.2pp → 4¢
  • May 13, 23:00 UTC · -24.3pp → 4¢
  • May 13, 21:00 UTC · -24.1pp → 4¢
  • May 13, 19:00 UTC · -24.3pp → 5¢
updated 06:14:13 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:14:13 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventEFL Championship: Team promoted to EPL
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team achieves promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League (EPL) for the 2026–27 season at the conclusion of the current league season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Official promotion is defined as a team clinching a place in the English Premier League (EPL) for the 2026–27 season through their final standing in the EFL Championship, via playoff victory, or by any other official league decision recognized by the EFL Championship and the English Premier League (EPL). If the 2025-26 EFL Championship season is cancelled, postponed after June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for promotion within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the EFL Championship and the English Premier League (EPL). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

premier league

Reason

EPL — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:14:13 GMT, YES is priced at 12% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -45.1pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 25, 2026 (2026-05-25T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$428.54 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $59.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $797.91. Spread between best bid and best ask: 8.5¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket