Will Mohamed Salah play in Scottish Premiership next?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-5.0pp
24h Vol
$56.20
Liquidity
$459.10
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Sep 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Probability (last 7 days)
-9.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $459 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Sep 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Sep 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 2533.2h
- 10:49SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.
Price movement
-5.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.3pp at May 14, 06:00 UTC (to 5¢).
Show top 8 of 26 hourly moves
- May 14, 18:00 UTC · -5.3pp → 5¢
- May 14, 17:00 UTC · -5.3pp → 5¢
- May 14, 15:00 UTC · -5.3pp → 5¢
- May 14, 14:00 UTC · -5.3pp → 5¢
- May 14, 12:00 UTC · -5.3pp → 5¢
- May 14, 11:00 UTC · -5.3pp → 5¢
- May 14, 09:00 UTC · -5.3pp → 5¢
- May 14, 07:00 UTC · -5.3pp → 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
8- 5¢+0.1
Will Mohamed Salah play in Premier League next?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 4¢+0.1
Will Mohamed Salah play in Ligue 1 next?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 21¢-7.0
Will Mohamed Salah play in MLS next?
Other · Vol $298.92
- 66¢-2.5
Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Mohamed Salah play in League D next?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Mohamed Salah play in League E next?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Mohamed Salah play in League G next?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Mohamed Salah play in League J next?
Other · Vol $0.00
Market Description
This market will resolve to the league of next club that Mohamed Salah officially joins by August 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. If Mohamed Salah does not officially join a new club by August 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. If Mohamed Salah signs a contract that includes a delayed transfer or loan-back clause requiring him to remain at Liverpool for a specified period before joining another club, this market will resolve to the club he is officially contracted to join following that period. If Mohamed Salah joins a club in a league that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If Mohamed Salah is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional club by August 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. Transfers or assignments between a club’s senior team and reserve or affiliate teams will not be considered for this market. An official transfer announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Liverpool, Mohamed Salah and/or the acquiring club. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Mohamed Salah play in Scottish Premiership next?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:49:26 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -5.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -9.7pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Sep 1, 2026 (2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$56.20 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $183.45. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $459.10. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.