Will Napoli place 2nd for the 2025-26 Serie A season?
Probability
90¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+9.3pp
24h Vol
$4.99
Liquidity
$153.63
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial Serie A dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (8.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 9pp over 24h
Now 90¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 8.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial Serie A dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (8.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 327.0h
- 09:02SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+9.3pp over the last 24h, now 90¢.
Biggest hourly move: -16.1pp at May 15, 04:00 UTC (to 80¢).
Show top 8 of 22 hourly moves
- May 15, 08:00 UTC · -13.8pp → 80¢
- May 15, 04:00 UTC · -16.1pp → 80¢
- May 14, 07:00 UTC · -13.3pp → 80¢
- May 14, 05:00 UTC · -14.2pp → 80¢
- May 14, 04:00 UTC · -14.2pp → 80¢
- May 14, 02:00 UTC · -13.6pp → 80¢
- May 14, 00:00 UTC · -13.2pp → 80¢
- May 13, 23:00 UTC · -12.8pp → 81¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes 2nd in the final standings of the 2025-2026 Serie A season. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve to the team officially recognized by Serie A as finishing in second place. If multiple teams are officially awarded second place, the market will resolve to the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish 2nd in the 2025-2026 Serie A season (e.g. they are mathematically unable to achieve enough points), the market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-2026 Serie A season is cancelled, postponed after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no 2nd place team declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Serie A. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
serie aReason
Italian Serie A — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Napoli place 2nd for the 2025-26 Serie A season?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:02:57 GMT, YES is priced at 90% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +9.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -4.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 1, 2026 (2026-06-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$4.99 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $153.63. Spread between best bid and best ask: 8.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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