SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 24, 2026
Creator

Will NRG win VCT 2026: Americas League Stage 1?

Probability

14¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

+8.0pp

24h Vol

$275.11

Liquidity

$1.1K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 24, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
liquipedia.net
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-32.5pp 7d
1007550250
14¢
May 13, 2026, 09:00 UTCMay 20, 2026, 08:26 UTC
updated 08:26:08 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-20T08-26Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 8pp over 24h

    Now 14¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $1.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 9¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 24, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 87.6h

    LOW

Price movement

+8.0pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.

Biggest hourly move: -40.0pp at May 19, 03:00 UTC (to 7¢).

Show top 8 of 44 hourly moves
  • 22:00 · -37.0pp → 7¢
  • 19:00 · -37.5pp → 7¢
  • 16:00 · -36.5pp → 7¢
  • 14:00 · -39.0pp → 7¢
  • 11:00 · -37.5pp → 7¢
  • 09:00 · -38.0pp → 7¢
  • May 19, 06:00 UTC · -39.0pp → 7¢
  • May 19, 03:00 UTC · -40.0pp → 7¢
updated 08:26:08 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 08:26:08 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

10
Same eventVCT 2026: Americas League Stage 1 Winner
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the VCT 2026: Americas League Stage 1 tournament, currently scheduled for April 10th - May 24th, 2026. If this tournament is postponed, canceled, or a winner has not been declared by June 7th, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Riot Games. However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/valorant/VCT/2026/Americas_League/Stage_1) may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

vct

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "vct" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will NRG win VCT 2026: Americas League Stage 1?"?

As of Wed, 20 May 2026 08:26:08 GMT, YES is priced at 14% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +8.0pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and -32.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 24, 2026 (2026-05-24T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$275.11 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $305.11. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

6 wallets
Open on Polymarket