Will Ricardo Horta record the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
Probability
24¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-0.7pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$75.60
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 21, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial UEFA dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 21, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (45.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 14h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 45.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 14 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 21, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial UEFA dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 21, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (45.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 14.4h
- 09:35SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 14h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
-0.7pp over the last 24h, now 24¢.
Biggest hourly move: +11.8pp at 02:00 (to 36¢).
Show 6 hourly moves
- 06:00 · +11.8pp → 36¢
- 04:00 · +11.8pp → 36¢
- 03:00 · +11.8pp → 36¢
- 02:00 · +11.8pp → 36¢
- 00:00 · +11.8pp → 36¢
- 22:00 · +11.8pp → 36¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the player who records the most goal contributions combined through all main tournament rounds of the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League competition. For the purpose of this market, a goal contribution is defined exclusively as the number of combined goals and assists a player has recorded. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by UEFA Europa League rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025-26 Europa League competition is cancelled, postponed after June 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
europa leagueReason
UEFA Europa League — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Ricardo Horta record the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?"?
As of Wed, 20 May 2026 09:35:12 GMT, YES is priced at 24% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.7pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and -0.1pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 21, 2026 (2026-05-21T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $75.60. Spread between best bid and best ask: 45.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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