SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 7, 2026
Creator

Will Team Vitality win LEC 2026 Spring?

Probability

5¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-10.7pp

24h Vol

$98.83

Liquidity

$438.72

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 7, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
lolesports.com
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.4pp 7d
1007550250
5¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:57 UTC
updated 07:57:56 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-57Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 11pp over 24h

    Now 5¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $439 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 10¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 7, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 472.0h

    LOW

Price movement

-10.7pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.

Biggest hourly move: +9.7pp at May 14, 17:00 UTC (to 15¢).

Show top 8 of 38 hourly moves
  • 19:00 · +7.3pp → 16¢
  • 16:00 · +7.3pp → 16¢
  • May 17, 05:00 UTC · +9.0pp → 16¢
  • May 16, 23:00 UTC · +8.9pp → 16¢
  • May 16, 08:00 UTC · -8.2pp → 8¢
  • May 14, 18:00 UTC · +9.4pp → 15¢
  • May 14, 17:00 UTC · +9.7pp → 15¢
  • May 13, 20:00 UTC · +7.3pp → 13¢
updated 07:57:56 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 07:57:56 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventLEC 2026 Spring Winner
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the League of Legends EMEA Championship (LEC) 2026 Spring season. If the 2026 Spring season is postponed after June 14, 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared in this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Riot Games (https://lolesports.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

lec

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lec" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Team Vitality win LEC 2026 Spring?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:57:56 GMT, YES is priced at 5% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -10.7pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -0.4pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 7, 2026 (2026-06-07T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$98.83 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $438.72. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

18 wallets
Open on Polymarket