BusinessMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026

Probability

25¢

1h

-0.4pp

24h

-2.5pp

24h Vol

$78.04

Liquidity

$3.4K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026
Link
ir.tesla.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+15.0pp 7d
1007550250
25¢
May 11, 2026, 09:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 08:10 UTC
updated 08:10:28 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T08-10Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 25¢; -0.4pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $3.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1023.8h

    LOW
  • 08:10Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 25¢.

Biggest hourly move: +11.8pp at May 17, 07:00 UTC (to 27¢).

Show top 8 of 49 hourly moves
  • 21:00 · +11.7pp → 27¢
  • 19:00 · +11.7pp → 27¢
  • 17:00 · +11.8pp → 27¢
  • 15:00 · +11.7pp → 27¢
  • 14:00 · +11.7pp → 27¢
  • 13:00 · +11.7pp → 27¢
  • 11:00 · +11.7pp → 27¢
  • May 17, 07:00 UTC · +11.8pp → 27¢
updated 08:10:28 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 08:10:28 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

7
Same eventHow many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?

Market Description

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Business

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

tesla

Reason

Question text contains "tesla" — matched the Business keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:10:28 GMT, YES is priced at 25% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.5pp in the last 24 hours, -0.4pp in the last hour, and +15.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$78.04 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $8.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

13 wallets
Open on Polymarket