BusinessExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?

Probability

2¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$13.8K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source

Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.

Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
2¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:31 UTC
updated 07:31:33 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-31Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $13.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1024.5h

    LOW
  • 07:31Signal

    Resolution risk

    Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

updated 07:31:33 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 07:31:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

1
Same eventWill Tesla release Optimus by...?

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Business

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

tesla

Reason

Question text contains "tesla" — matched the Business keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:31:33 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $81.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $13.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket