SportsExpires Sep 28, 2026
Creator

Will the Cleveland Guardians win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

Probability

6¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$176.47

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 28, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
mlb.com
Link
mlb.com
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.5pp 7d
1007550250
6¢
May 11, 2026, 10:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 09:10 UTC
updated 09:10:18 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T09-10Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 8.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Sep 28, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3182.8h

    LOW
  • 09:10Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.

updated 09:10:18 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 09:10:18 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMLB: Team to win 100+ games
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB regular season (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". Any tiebreaker or “Game 163” will be considered part of the MLB regular season. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether the listed team has won 100 or more games within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

mlb

Reason

MLB — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Cleveland Guardians win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:10:18 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Sep 28, 2026 (2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $176.47. Spread between best bid and best ask: 8.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket