SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Probability

40¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$11.0K

Liquidity

$155.5K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source

Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.

Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+5.9pp 7d
1007550250
40¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:01 UTC
updated 06:02:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-02Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $11.0k traded against $155.5k of visible liquidity (0.07× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1026.0h

    LOW
  • 06:02Signal

    Resolution risk

    Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 40¢.

Biggest hourly move: +5.9pp at May 14, 14:00 UTC (to 39¢).

Show top 8 of 16 hourly moves
  • May 14, 14:00 UTC · +5.9pp → 39¢
  • May 14, 12:00 UTC · +4.3pp → 39¢
  • May 14, 07:00 UTC · +4.3pp → 40¢
  • May 14, 05:00 UTC · +5.3pp → 41¢
  • May 14, 04:00 UTC · +5.7pp → 41¢
  • May 14, 00:00 UTC · +4.7pp → 39¢
  • May 13, 23:00 UTC · +4.3pp → 39¢
  • May 13, 21:00 UTC · +4.1pp → 38¢
updated 06:02:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:02:01 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

10
Same event2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL. The resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nhl

Reason

NHL — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:02:01 GMT, YES is priced at 40% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +5.9pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$11.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $14.5M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $155.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket