SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jul 1, 2026
Creator

Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-3.9pp

24h Vol

$601.3K

Liquidity

$487.0K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jul 1, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source

Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.

Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-5.3pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
May 11, 2026, 05:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 04:04 UTC
updated 04:06:14 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T04-06Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 4pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1051.9h

    LOW
  • 04:06Signal

    Resolution risk

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

    LOW

Price movement

-3.9pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 04:06:14 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 04:06:14 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

10
Same event2026 NBA Champion
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NBA Finals based off the rules of the NBA. The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nba

Reason

NBA — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 04:06:14 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -5.3pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 1, 2026 (2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$601.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $19.1M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $487.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket