Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$3.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Spread cost
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 5, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 424.0h
Price movement
+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.8pp at May 14, 21:00 UTC (to 3¢).
Show top 8 of 27 hourly moves
- May 15, 13:00 UTC · -4.7pp → 3¢
- May 15, 08:00 UTC · -4.5pp → 3¢
- May 15, 05:00 UTC · -4.5pp → 3¢
- May 15, 02:00 UTC · -4.5pp → 3¢
- May 15, 00:00 UTC · -4.7pp → 3¢
- May 14, 23:00 UTC · -4.7pp → 3¢
- May 14, 21:00 UTC · -4.8pp → 3¢
- May 14, 20:00 UTC · -4.5pp → 3¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
unemploymentReason
Question text contains "unemployment" — matched the Macro keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:02:16 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and -3.7pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 5, 2026 (2026-06-05T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$5.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $51.47. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 5.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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