Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?
Probability
13¢
1h
+2.5pp
24h
-4.5pp
24h Vol
$62.56
Liquidity
$992.92
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each monthLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (18.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 13¢; +2.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 18.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each monthLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (18.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Feb 28, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 6857.9h
- 06:03SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-4.5pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.
Biggest hourly move: +14.5pp at May 17, 03:00 UTC (to 22¢).
Show top 8 of 50 hourly moves
- 23:00 · +9.5pp → 22¢
- 19:00 · +12.0pp → 22¢
- 07:00 · +11.5pp → 21¢
- May 17, 05:00 UTC · +12.0pp → 22¢
- May 17, 03:00 UTC · +14.5pp → 22¢
- May 17, 02:00 UTC · +11.5pp → 22¢
- May 17, 00:00 UTC · +13.5pp → 22¢
- May 16, 23:00 UTC · +13.0pp → 22¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
crude oilReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "crude oil" — matched the Macro rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:03:23 GMT, YES is priced at 13% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -4.5pp in the last 24 hours, +2.5pp in the last hour, and +1.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Feb 28, 2027 (2027-02-28T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$62.56 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $16.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $992.92. Spread between best bid and best ask: 18.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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