Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5)
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.90
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Feb 1, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (99.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 99.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Feb 1, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (99.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 13:48SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: +49.0pp at May 15, 20:00 UTC (to 50¢).
Show top 8 of 38 hourly moves
- May 15, 20:00 UTC · +49.0pp → 50¢
- May 14, 23:00 UTC · +41.3pp → 42¢
- May 14, 20:00 UTC · +43.9pp → 44¢
- May 14, 18:00 UTC · +46.7pp → 47¢
- May 14, 17:00 UTC · +46.5pp → 49¢
- May 14, 12:00 UTC · +35.1pp → 50¢
- May 14, 11:00 UTC · +45.4pp → 50¢
- May 14, 08:00 UTC · +38.4pp → 50¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Liudmila Samsonova and Laura Siegemund in the Australian Open WTA, scheduled for January 18 2026. This market will resolve to "Samsonova" if Liudmila Samsonova wins by 2 or more sets than Laura Siegemund, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Siegemund." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
australian openReason
Australian Open — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5)"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 13:48:40 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and -2.4pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Feb 1, 2026 (2026-02-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://ausopen.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://ausopen.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $6.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.90. Spread between best bid and best ask: 99.9¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.