CryptoExpires Feb 24, 2026
Creator

XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET

Probability

2¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$5.8K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Feb 24, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Chainlink data stream XRP/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets
Link
data.chain.link
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.9pp 7d
1007550250
2¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:03 UTC
updated 06:03:38 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-03Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $5.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 06:03Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

updated 06:03:38 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:03:38 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XRP/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Crypto

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

xrp

Reason

XRP / Ripple token market — Crypto.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:03:38 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.9pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Feb 24, 2026 (2026-02-24T07:05:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $186.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.9¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket