Weak after spread on /backtest: ~-2.6pp expected 24h move, ~40% win rate across the top-15 sample. Treat as research, not a profitable signal.
SampleHIGHFull backtest
Research Queue
Research Queue · ranked by Research Score
A daily worklist of markets where multiple factors line up. Each row carries a transparent score, confidence context, and a verification next step.
Research candidates
2
Resolution jobs
15
Top score
60
High-confidence
2
Score blends live signal evidence, multi-kind agreement, liquidity, spread quality, and resolution-risk penalty. The action column stays verification-first: watch, alert, verify, compare.
Aggregate after-spread verdict per signal kind, mirroring the /backtest page. The inspector on the Research tab also shows the live slice verdict per signal so users can see when the live observation carries higher evidence than the historical aggregate would support.
Weak after spread on /backtest: ~-1.8pp expected 24h move, ~49% win rate across the small sample available. Inspect, not actionable.
SampleLOWFull backtest
Forward-only — flow signals need persistent trade-feed history we don't yet store.
SampleFORWARD-ONLYFull backtest
Forward-only — news ingestion isn't persisted yet, so there's no backtest to aggregate.
SampleFORWARD-ONLYFull backtest
Forward-only — event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone.
SampleFORWARD-ONLYFull backtest
Verdicts are a static snapshot from the latest /backtest run on the top-15 markets by volume; they drift as upstream data changes. A persistent backtest history will replace this snapshot once the signal-firing ledger lands.
Honest caveats
- Not a trade signal. The Research Score is a multi-factor ranking for daily research attention, not a forecast. Use the suggested next step — watch, verify, alert, compare — to validate independently.
- Capacity is an estimate. ~8% of visible liquidity. Real capacity depends on the depth of the order book at the moment you place a trade, which this view doesn't see.
- Horizon is a heuristic. Flow + divergence patterns play out in hours; momentum in days. Expiry dominates if closer.
- No execution costs modeled. Spread + Polymarket fees would eat into any nominal advantage if you traded on the score directly — which is why every row carries a verification next-step instead of a trade recommendation.