What prediction markets just learned
A recurring digest of what moved on Polymarket — biggest probability swings, whale calls, signal-stacked candidates, disputed resolutions, and crowded markets. Public data, never trade calls. Refreshed every 30 minutes.
Agent API receipts
KV backedx402 attempts
405
402 challenges
405
Settled calls
0
Settled USDC
0.000
| Endpoint | Calls | 402 | Settled | Revenue | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| /api/x402/v1/events | 75 | 75 | 0 | 0.000 | May 18, 01:24 UTC |
| /api/x402/v1/brief/today | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0.000 | May 18, 05:16 UTC |
| /api/x402/v1/signals/{kind} | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.000 | May 18, 01:21 UTC |
| /api/x402/v1/backtest/{kind} | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.000 | May 18, 01:21 UTC |
| /api/x402/v1/category/{slug}/intelligence | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.000 | May 18, 01:21 UTC |
Biggest moves · 24h
5Largest probability swings on liquid live-research markets. Pinned-at-extreme markets are excluded — those are settlement queues, not fresh signal.
- 1
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
GeopoliticsVol $322.4K · Liq $56.9K31¢
+11.5 - 2
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?
CryptoVol $230.8K · Liq $123.0K14¢
-4.0 - 3
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
GeopoliticsVol $520.9K · Liq $895.2K8¢
-2.0 - 4
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
SportsVol $527.8K · Liq $698.7K4¢
+1.9 - 5
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
SportsVol $225.8K · Liq $242.6K24¢
+0.9
Top whale calls · last 24h
0Largest single trades by USD. Big size doesn't equal smart money — but it's where attention concentrates.
Quiet whale window. The feed picks up trades ≥ $25k.
Loudest observations
1Markets where momentum / flow / divergence stacked, ranked by observation confidence. Action is always 'watch' — never a trade call.
Most disputed resolutions
5Markets with active UMA dispute or pending oracle votes. Verify the source before treating moves as fresh information.
- 1
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?
PoliticsUMA disputedVol $4.3M · expires May 15100¢
- 2
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)
SportsUMA proposedVol $2.1M · expires May 170¢
- 3
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
GeopoliticsUMA disputedVol $1.9M · expires May 151¢
- 4
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
GeopoliticsUMA disputedVol $900.3K · expires May 151¢
- 5
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?
ScienceUMA disputedVol $853.6K · expires Dec 31100¢
Most crowded markets
5Biggest turnover (24h volume / liquidity) on a tight spread. Heavy attention, real fills.
- 1
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
PoliticsVol $2.3M · Liq $117.3K · spread 0.4¢19.7×
- 2
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
GeopoliticsVol $322.4K · Liq $56.9K · spread 2.0¢5.7×
- 3
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
SportsVol $870.0K · Liq $368.5K · spread 0.1¢2.4×
- 4
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
GeopoliticsVol $868.3K · Liq $449.6K · spread 0.1¢1.9×
- 5
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?
CryptoVol $230.8K · Liq $123.0K · spread 1.0¢1.9×
How to read this page
- Not trade calls. Receipts describe what happened, not what to do next. Action is always watch / verify / compare.
- Refreshed every 30 minutes from public Polymarket data. Once Orrery has a persistent snapshot store we'll add a
/receipts/[date]archive for week-by-week comparison. - Honest about misses. Disputed resolutions + signal stacks that didn't pay off get the same prime real estate as the wins.