Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$4.2M
Liquidity
$2.1M
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'disputed'.
Resolution is contested. Do not treat the current price as final until UMA settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- disputed
- Resolution source
- Primarysg.finance.yahoo.comTypeSource not classifiedConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: disputed
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 2.0× turnover
$4.2M traded against $2.1M of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: disputed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- disputed
- Resolution source
- Primarysg.finance.yahoo.comTypeSource not classifiedConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: disputed
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 02:58SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +71.0pp at 15:00 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 10 hourly moves
- 02:00 · +66.0pp → 100¢
- 00:00 · +71.0pp → 100¢
- 23:00 · +70.0pp → 100¢
- 21:00 · +70.5pp → 100¢
- 19:00 · +70.5pp → 100¢
- 17:00 · +71.0pp → 100¢
- 15:00 · +71.0pp → 100¢
- 11:00 · +58.5pp → 100¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 7¢0.0
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Politics · Vol $2.3M
- 1¢-0.1
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $455.6K
- 0¢+0.1
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $323.5K
- 1¢0.0
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Politics · Vol $319.9K
- 1¢-0.1
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $312.3K
- 11¢-3.3
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
Politics · Vol $268.1K
Market Description
An interview of Donald Trump with Bret Baier is scheduled to air on May 15, 2026, at 7 PM ET. ((https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/fox-news-channel-conduct-first-172700257.html). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks during the interview by Bret Baier scheduled for May 15, 2026. (See: https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/fox-news-channel-conduct-first-172700257.html). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official audio/video of the event.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
trumpReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 02:58:04 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$4.2M of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.4M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.1M. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
20 wallets- Oddball-Maniac1.5M
- Shocked-Anagram600.0K
- Broken-Dogwood533.1K
- Sociable-Rooster500.0K
- Sugary-Concentration200.0K
- Talkative-Killer694.4K
- Leading-Attitude-Complexity510.2K
- Everlasting-Flume476.0K
- Generous-Maximum251.3K
- Jam-Packed-Theft158.9K