The market moved
-4.3ppin 24h · now 27¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
Tech · resolves May 19 · vol $123.0K
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 27¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.3pp shift. Resolution depends on polymarket post counter (tracker) — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Polymarket Post Counter (tracker) — https://xtracker.polymarket.com.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 30.8h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.