TechMulti-outcomeExpires May 19, 2026
Creator

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Probability

48¢

1h

+3.0pp

24h

+11.2pp

24h Vol

$83.0K

Liquidity

$18.7K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 34h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)
Link
xtracker.polymarket.com
Type
Tracker / counter
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 19, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+41.8pp 7d
1007550250
48¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:05 UTC
updated 06:05:09 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-05Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 11pp over 24h

    Now 48¢; +3.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 4.4× turnover

    $83.0k traded against $18.7k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 34h.

  • 04
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $18.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 34 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 19, 16:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 33.9h

    HIGH
  • 06:05Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 34h.

    LOW

Price movement

+11.2pp over the last 24h, now 48¢.

Biggest hourly move: +36.7pp at 04:00 (to 45¢).

Show top 8 of 50 hourly moves
  • 05:00 · +32.9pp → 45¢
  • 04:00 · +36.7pp → 45¢
  • 07:00 · +31.0pp → 36¢
  • May 17, 06:00 UTC · +33.7pp → 36¢
  • May 17, 05:00 UTC · +35.4pp → 38¢
  • May 17, 03:00 UTC · +34.1pp → 37¢
  • May 17, 02:00 UTC · +32.5pp → 36¢
  • May 16, 23:00 UTC · +30.6pp → 34¢
updated 06:05:09 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:05:09 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Same eventElon Musk # tweets May 12 - May 19, 2026?
Category · Tech

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Tech

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

elon musk

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "elon musk" — matched the Tech rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:05:09 GMT, YES is priced at 48% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +11.2pp in the last 24 hours, +3.0pp in the last hour, and +41.8pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 19, 2026 (2026-05-19T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://x.com/elonmusk.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/elonmusk. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$83.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $397.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $18.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket