Merry-Instinct
0x04c30bf8962249cf05f9bdd18611335e8fc04cd1
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
26
Open notional
$117.37
Total PnL
$-85.87
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of May 18 above $280?
117 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$117.37
$0.27
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?
1417 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.25
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 20?
700 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 20?
696 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.39
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 28?
680 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.36
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 12?
622 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.24
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 12?
622 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.24
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
599 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 28?
595 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.19
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 13?
590 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.77
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) finish week of May 18 above $280?$117.10May 22, 10:28 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 20?$117.23May 22, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 20?$117.11May 20, 11:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19?$117.12May 20, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19?$117.01May 19, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage$7.64May 19, 05:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$123.86May 19, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$124.01May 19, 04:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18?$124.79May 19, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18?$124.68May 18, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew York Mets vs. Washington Nationals$6.24May 18, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?$130.86May 18, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?$131.01May 18, 09:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17?$130.26May 18, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17?$130.02May 17, 12:36 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs$10.94May 17, 12:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$119.88May 17, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$119.77May 16, 08:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?$118.85May 16, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?$119.02May 16, 08:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $103.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 9, 03:24 UTC
- Last active
- May 22, 10:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".