Extra-Large-Begonia
0x095dcfb123a4bc035ee6b0d624bab0cc964352cf
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
135
Open notional
$904.3K
Total PnL
$-321.7K
Realised
$432.70
Win rate
79%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 135- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
300000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 81.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$244.1K
$94.0K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
148890 shares @ 87.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$142.2K
$12.7K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
104319 shares @ 95.9¢·now 98.7¢·exp May 31, 2026$102.9K
$2.9K
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
300000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 18.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$56.0K
$-94.0K
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
55518 shares @ 90.8¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$48.6K
$-1.8K
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
33891 shares @ 93.8¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$33.0K
$1.2K
- NO
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
29757 shares @ 93.8¢·now 94.8¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$28.2K
$268.68
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
39563 shares @ 66.1¢·now 63.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$25.1K
$-1.0K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
30423 shares @ 64.1¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.1K
$5.6K
- NO
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
26100 shares @ 95.7¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$24.8K
$-199.74
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$724.20May 18, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$190.00May 18, 04:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?$35.35May 18, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$19.74May 18, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$4.69May 18, 04:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$19.78May 18, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?$200.12May 18, 03:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$19.86May 18, 03:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$19.00May 18, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$19.76May 18, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$0.54May 18, 02:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$0.33May 18, 02:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$1.23May 18, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$950.01May 18, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$9.99May 18, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?$57.78May 18, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$19.76May 18, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?$19.72May 18, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?$36.40May 18, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?$89.34May 18, 01:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $105.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 17:47 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 04:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".