GeopoliticsExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Probability

3¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.3pp

24h Vol

$47.6K

Liquidity

$146.2K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.4pp 7d
1007550250
3¢
May 11, 2026, 05:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 04:02 UTC
updated 04:02:59 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T04-02Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1028.0h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.3pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

updated 04:02:59 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 04:02:59 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

7
Same eventWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Geopolitics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

airspace

Reason

Airspace incursion / military aviation markets are Geopolitics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 04:02:59 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.4pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$47.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $4.5M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $146.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket