Naive-Waterwheel
0x10b289276b2b69cac7b1bbc58601009b6ee74ceb
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
118
Open notional
$2.9K
Total PnL
$15.52
Realised
$36.72
Win rate
43%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 118- YES
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
281 shares @ 28.4¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$133.26
$53.62
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?
500 shares @ 20.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$127.50
$27.50
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
400 shares @ 25.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$112.00
$12.00
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
238 shares @ 42.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$108.33
$8.33
- NO
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
110 shares @ 24.5¢·now 97.9¢·exp May 15, 2026$108.12
$81.08
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
222 shares @ 45.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$105.56
$5.56
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
562 shares @ 17.8¢·now 18.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$102.53
$2.53
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
277 shares @ 36.1¢·now 36.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$100.42
$0.42
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
599 shares @ 16.7¢·now 16.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$99.70
$-0.30
- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1205 shares @ 8.3¢·now 8.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$99.40
$-0.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNo one announced as next James Bond?$3.34May 18, 11:57 UTC
- TRADESELLNo one announced as next James Bond?$2.21May 18, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo one announced as next James Bond?$2.80May 18, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?$2.33May 18, 09:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$3.24May 18, 09:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$0.79May 18, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?$3.00May 18, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?$6.29May 18, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?$5.00May 18, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$4.00May 18, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$4.10May 18, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$4.30May 18, 07:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$19.86May 18, 06:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.08May 18, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$6.68May 17, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17?$11.21May 17, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17?$1.35May 17, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$80.01May 17, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 30?$1.68May 17, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026?$1.08May 17, 18:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $12.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 07:55 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 11:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".