Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Probability
61¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$45.4K
Liquidity
$113.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryRussian governmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 61¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryRussian governmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Sep 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 3234.8h
Price movement
-2.0pp over the last 24h, now 61¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.0pp at May 13, 18:00 UTC (to 61¢).
Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
- 04:00 · -3.0pp → 60¢
- May 16, 19:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 63¢
- May 16, 05:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 63¢
- May 14, 05:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 60¢
- May 14, 04:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 61¢
- May 14, 02:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 61¢
- May 14, 00:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 61¢
- May 13, 18:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 61¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
parliamentary electionReason
Parliamentary election markets are Politics.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 05:12:14 GMT, YES is priced at 61% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and -4.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Sep 30, 2026 (2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$45.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.2M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $113.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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