Exhausted-Patina-Disability
0x1206cec7aa15c192381f32f70292a1ef1e231362
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
138
Open notional
$11.6K
Total PnL
$-617.23
Realised
$211.39
Win rate
57%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 138- NO
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?
2257 shares @ 91.5¢·now 96.4¢·exp May 19, 2026$2.2K
$110.20
- YES
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
1954 shares @ 50.6¢·now 48.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$947.79
$-41.07
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
907 shares @ 91.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$906.23
$78.74
- NO
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
2555 shares @ 56.6¢·now 33.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$843.09
$-602.46
- NO
Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11?
1006 shares @ 66.7¢·now 57.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$573.32
$-97.42
- NO
Will Carlos Mendoza win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
566 shares @ 80.0¢·now 94.7¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$535.72
$82.92
- YES
Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?
500 shares @ 97.6¢·now 99.5¢·exp May 19, 2026$497.12
$9.43
- YES
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
2300 shares @ 8.8¢·now 13.8¢·exp May 31, 2026$316.27
$114.71
- NO
Will Shelley Hughes advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
326 shares @ 88.7¢·now 96.2¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$313.72
$24.33
- NO
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?
315 shares @ 70.1¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$269.32
$48.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$1.67May 18, 07:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel win Eurovision 2026?$5.00May 18, 07:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$10.00May 18, 07:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$10.02May 18, 07:19 UTC
- TRADESELLJerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?$114.72May 16, 23:40 UTC
- TRADESELLJerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?$3.50May 16, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$21.29May 16, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$18.94May 16, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$62.08May 16, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?$487.53May 16, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?$0.10May 16, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?$23.57May 16, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?$4.60May 16, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?$3.00May 16, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$23.26May 16, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?$37.04May 16, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?$2.34May 16, 05:59 UTC
- TRADESELLJerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?$0.70May 16, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$7.61May 16, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?$5.83May 16, 03:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $28.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 12:09 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 07:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".