PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 19, 2026
Creator

Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

Probability

4¢

1h

+2.5pp

24h

-0.6pp

24h Vol

$3.7K

Liquidity

$56.8K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 19h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
nato
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 19, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.7pp 7d
1007550250
4¢
May 11, 2026, 06:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 05:11 UTC
updated 05:12:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T05-12Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Divergence observation firing

    Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +2.5pp vs. 24h -0.6pp.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 19h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 19 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 00:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 18.8h

    HIGH
  • 05:12Signal

    Short-term vs. trend divergence

    Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +2.5pp vs. 24h -0.6pp.

    MEDIUM
  • 05:12Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 19h.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.6pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.

Biggest hourly move: -3.4pp at 03:00 (to 2¢).

Show 2 hourly moves
  • 05:00 · -3.4pp → 2¢
  • 03:00 · -3.4pp → 2¢
updated 05:12:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 05:12:01 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventGeorgia Governor Republican Primary Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Georgia, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Georgia Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Georgia Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

election

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "election" — matched the Politics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 05:12:01 GMT, YES is priced at 4% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.6pp in the last 24 hours, +2.5pp in the last hour, and -1.7pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 19, 2026 (2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$3.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $112.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $56.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket