Probable-Amazement
0x156b01ac06ff483ac6c768dee1204cdfd9d75808
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$71.91
Total PnL
$-1.13
Realised
$-0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
16 shares @ 96.2¢·now 98.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.34
$0.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 23?
23 shares @ 43.8¢·now 42.5¢·exp May 23, 2026$9.69
$-0.31
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 22?
13 shares @ 46.2¢·now 45.5¢·exp May 22, 2026$5.91
$-0.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 24?
20 shares @ 24.4¢·now 26.5¢·exp May 24, 2026$5.43
$0.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 22?
15 shares @ 39.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp May 22, 2026$5.31
$-0.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 24?
15 shares @ 34.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$5.29
$0.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 23?
14 shares @ 36.6¢·now 37.5¢·exp May 23, 2026$5.13
$0.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 23?
14 shares @ 37.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp May 23, 2026$5.07
$0.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 24?
16 shares @ 32.2¢·now 22.5¢·exp May 24, 2026$3.49
$-1.51
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 22?
4 shares @ 25.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp May 22, 2026$2.02
$1.02
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$58.49May 22, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$50.51May 22, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$2.02May 22, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$2.00May 22, 06:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$2.02May 22, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$2.00May 22, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 23?$2.08May 22, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 23?$2.07May 22, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 23?$10.28May 22, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 24?$2.09May 22, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 24?$5.17May 22, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 24?$5.16May 22, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 24?$5.19May 22, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 23?$5.16May 22, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 23?$5.16May 22, 06:08 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$2.13May 22, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$2.01May 22, 05:45 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$2.52May 22, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$2.03May 22, 05:40 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET$2.11May 22, 05:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $6.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 21, 15:11 UTC
- Last active
- May 22, 08:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".