Complex-Substance
0x16ef1f5b4e6f3809ee68d74109581804ab32534f
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$712.49
Total PnL
$300.62
Realised
$56.68
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5000 shares @ 3.0¢·now 6.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$315.00
$165.00
- NO
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?
384 shares @ 17.4¢·now 43.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$165.24
$98.31
- YES
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
135 shares @ 32.3¢·now 67.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$90.39
$46.88
- YES
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
75 shares @ 47.9¢·now 63.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$47.52
$11.65
- YES
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?
48 shares @ 67.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.59
$14.74
- NO
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
40 shares @ 40.4¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$31.81
$15.63
- NO
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 36.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp May 31, 2026$14.53
$9.13
- YES
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
3 shares @ 19.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$1.14
$0.49
- YES
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
10 shares @ 35.0¢·now 2.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.28
$-3.21
- YES
Will I Lied to You - Sinners win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?
411 shares @ 12.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-50.85
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03May 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 8, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 2, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03May 1, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?$216.40Apr 30, 23:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Apr 30, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $24.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 14, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".