Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Probability
73¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$69.95
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (31.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 73¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 31.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (31.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 06:04SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+3.5pp over the last 24h, now 73¢.
Biggest hourly move: +36.0pp at May 14, 18:00 UTC (to 65¢).
Show top 8 of 55 hourly moves
- 14:00 · -14.0pp → 60¢
- May 16, 19:00 UTC · -15.0pp → 60¢
- May 14, 18:00 UTC · +36.0pp → 65¢
- May 14, 17:00 UTC · +23.5pp → 68¢
- May 14, 13:00 UTC · +20.0pp → 68¢
- May 14, 11:00 UTC · +15.0pp → 75¢
- May 14, 06:00 UTC · +21.0pp → 75¢
- May 14, 00:00 UTC · +27.0pp → 75¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
3Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
geminiReason
Question text contains "gemini" — matched the AI keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:04:07 GMT, YES is priced at 73% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +3.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +4.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Feb 28, 2026 (2026-02-28T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $49.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $69.95. Spread between best bid and best ask: 31.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.