Real-Capitulation
0x402c9fe6d7cbbe275184feb0dbf8ea517ae30f6d
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-7.3K
Realised
$-2.6K
Win rate
48%
183 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
373 shares @ 81.4¢·now 80.6¢·exp May 22, 2026$300.24
$-3.04
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
315 shares @ 88.5¢·now 89.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$280.57
$1.62
- NO
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
185 shares @ 90.8¢·now 94.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$174.35
$5.91
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
235 shares @ 46.5¢·now 48.4¢·exp May 19, 2026$113.76
$4.41
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
302 shares @ 26.2¢·now 34.5¢·exp May 19, 2026$104.31
$25.05
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
386 shares @ 5.1¢·now 7.1¢·exp May 22, 2026$27.36
$7.58
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
163 shares @ 17.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp May 22, 2026$26.87
$-0.81
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
130 shares @ 13.2¢·now 19.9¢·exp May 22, 2026$25.71
$8.59
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
186 shares @ 12.6¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$21.42
$-1.97
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
361 shares @ 3.4¢·now 5.3¢·exp May 19, 2026$18.97
$6.82
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$8.48May 18, 06:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$1.84May 18, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$11.01May 18, 06:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$4.42May 18, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$1.62May 18, 06:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$10.98May 18, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$1.66May 18, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$16.96May 18, 05:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$0.76May 18, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$3.52May 18, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$2.45May 18, 05:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$27.52May 18, 05:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$1.53May 18, 05:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$5.00May 18, 05:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$1.98May 18, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$21.48May 18, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$3.29May 18, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$3.90May 18, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$16.18May 18, 05:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$4.17May 18, 05:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $14.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 05:23 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 06:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 183 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".