Quizzical-Discussion
0x410aa391edffa58af64517ec579af5def62b2643
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$394.0K
Total PnL
$3.3K
Realised
$-550.23
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
80000 shares @ 84.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$76.4K
$9.2K
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
66000 shares @ 83.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$57.7K
$3.0K
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
50000 shares @ 84.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.2K
$3.2K
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
50000 shares @ 89.2¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.3K
$-350.00
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
45460 shares @ 89.7¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.5K
$1.8K
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
40000 shares @ 85.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$34.6K
$600.00
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
40000 shares @ 82.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.0K
$200.04
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
29200 shares @ 99.1¢·now 98.9¢·exp May 31, 2026$28.9K
$-73.00
- NO
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
12000 shares @ 80.5¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.7K
$1.1K
- NO
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?
5000 shares @ 96.6¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$5.0K
$137.50
Recent activity
- YIELD$4.85May 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$4.85May 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$4.85May 16, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$28.9KMay 15, 07:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?$5.0KMay 15, 07:19 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$14.0KMay 15, 07:19 UTC
- YIELD$4.85May 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$4.85May 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$4.85May 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$3.15May 12, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$1.59May 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$13.6KMay 11, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$17.6KMay 11, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$22.67May 11, 15:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$127.01May 11, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$113.05May 11, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$82.66May 11, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$170.00May 11, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$170.00May 11, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$170.00May 11, 15:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $2.3K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 7, 12:35 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".