PoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?

Probability

11¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$109.09

Liquidity

$29.7K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
court ruling
Type
Court record
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-2.0pp 7d
1007550250
11¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:59 UTC
updated 07:59:29 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-59Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5440.0h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 11¢.

updated 07:59:29 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 07:59:29 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any individual serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison, and the cause of that incarceration is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying incarceration must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of incarceration may be established through official charging documents, court rulings, sentencing statements, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the incarceration to information contained in those released files. Incarceration driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official court records or government statements, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

epstein

Reason

Epstein-case markets — DOJ / FBI / Congressional record release. Politics, not Unclassified.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? "?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:59:29 GMT, YES is priced at 11% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -2.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$109.09 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $292.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $29.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket