0x471931a87ab99d16b2e2e70b74906b6c8b796487
0x471931a87ab99d16b2e2e70b74906b6c8b796487
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
29
Open notional
$4.3K
Total PnL
$-75.89
Realised
$97.97
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1235 shares @ 38.9¢·now 35.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$440.79
$-39.28
- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
634 shares @ 31.4¢·now 38.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$241.20
$42.20
- NO
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
418 shares @ 47.5¢·now 55.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$231.82
$32.82
- NO
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
257 shares @ 77.3¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$227.66
$28.66
- NO
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
258 shares @ 87.8¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$224.37
$-1.98
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
236 shares @ 84.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$223.10
$24.10
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
269 shares @ 74.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$221.86
$22.86
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
332 shares @ 60.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$218.90
$19.90
- NO
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
234 shares @ 85.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$214.22
$15.22
- NO
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
260 shares @ 76.5¢·now 82.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$213.32
$14.32
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026?$0.00May 16, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026?$0.00May 16, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026?$0.00May 13, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 11, 2026?$0.00May 12, 02:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 9, 2026?$0.00May 10, 14:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026?$0.00May 9, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026?$102.75May 8, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026?$102.92May 8, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 26, 2026?$102.73May 8, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?$51.40May 8, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?$51.37May 8, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026?$51.37May 8, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?$51.44May 8, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 11, 2026?$51.49May 8, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026?$51.46May 8, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 9, 2026?$51.47May 8, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026?$51.41May 8, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026?$51.35May 8, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?$51.45May 8, 19:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $2,200 on May 7?$0.00May 8, 12:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $106.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 11, 20:09 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 16:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".