PoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Probability

9¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$100.04

Liquidity

$41.3K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
US government
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+3.0pp 7d
1007550250
9¢
May 11, 2026, 06:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 05:11 UTC
updated 05:12:17 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T05-12Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5442.8h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 9¢.

Biggest hourly move: +3.0pp at May 13, 18:00 UTC (to 9¢).

Show 6 hourly moves
  • May 14, 02:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 9¢
  • May 14, 00:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 9¢
  • May 13, 23:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 9¢
  • May 13, 21:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 9¢
  • May 13, 20:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 9¢
  • May 13, 18:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 9¢
updated 05:12:17 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 05:12:17 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

prime minister

Reason

Prime Minister selection / confirmation markets — Politics regardless of country.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 05:12:17 GMT, YES is priced at 9% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +3.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$100.04 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $579.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $41.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket