Live-Hacienda
0x492d4e7e97b93865b3dbf0f5d36b0cf8b8779487
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-425.09
Realised
$566.13
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
1829 shares @ 63.3¢·now 24.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$448.10
$-709.07
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
700 shares @ 58.9¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$199.43
$-213.07
- NO
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?
110 shares @ 80.9¢·now 93.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$102.56
$13.76
- YES
Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 85.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$95.50
$10.50
- YES
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?
100 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp May 30, 2026$89.55
$-0.45
- YES
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?
500 shares @ 20.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$52.50
$-47.50
- NO
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?
36 shares @ 80.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$33.60
$4.54
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
66 shares @ 69.9¢·now 35.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.40
$-22.92
- YES
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?
34 shares @ 72.4¢·now 28.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$9.73
$-15.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?
15 shares @ 73.5¢·now 46.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.89
$-4.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYGaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?$55.48May 18, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYGaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?$44.41May 18, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYGaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?$0.11May 18, 06:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$0.00May 18, 06:08 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$15.70May 17, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$4.65May 17, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$10.06May 17, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$1.06May 17, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLGaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?$352.27May 17, 22:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$11.24May 17, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel win Eurovision 2026?$0.00May 17, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$10.05May 16, 22:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win Eurovision 2026?$1.04May 16, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal win a trophy this season?$90.00May 13, 19:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Transgender" this week?$32.99May 13, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYGaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?$13.62May 12, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBen-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?$78.80May 12, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYGaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?$0.80May 12, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYGaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?$31.16May 11, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Transgender" this week?$2.09May 10, 17:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $31.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 1, 11:30 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 07:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".