Obvious-Pit
0x4b1b87c2190176ff8072c63060cfea2e1ae862c1
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$4.1K
Total PnL
$-649.83
Realised
$235.92
Win rate
100%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
700 shares @ 81.6¢·now 94.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$658.88
$87.52
- NO
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?
685 shares @ 91.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$640.86
$17.14
- YES
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?
529 shares @ 59.9¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$471.17
$153.81
- NO
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
900 shares @ 65.7¢·now 49.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$441.00
$-150.00
- YES
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?
435 shares @ 93.2¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$424.06
$19.07
- NO
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.25T and 1.50T?
431 shares @ 89.5¢·now 94.3¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$405.76
$20.45
- NO
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
1180 shares @ 39.8¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$371.56
$-98.10
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
200 shares @ 85.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$171.00
$1.00
- YES
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
600 shares @ 16.1¢·now 24.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$144.90
$48.30
- YES
Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by June 30, 2026?
116 shares @ 83.9¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$102.08
$4.74
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill GameStop acquire eBay?$170.00May 17, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnthropic IPO before 2027?$4.63May 16, 19:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?$332.08May 16, 19:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have closed its next funding round by December 31, 2026?$97.92May 12, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic be acquired before 2027?$12.74May 10, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)$24.36May 10, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)$114.69May 9, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)$112.81May 9, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?$85.21May 9, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO closing market cap above $24B?$36.94May 9, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO closing market cap above $28B?$34.64May 9, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)$33.14May 9, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYKraken IPO by December 31, 2026?$42.43May 9, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?$218.70May 7, 07:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?$90.00May 6, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?$8.30May 6, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?$25.00May 6, 01:26 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.19May 6, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$2.45May 6, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?$100.00May 5, 20:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $90.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 3, 08:04 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 22:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".