BusinessExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

Probability

88¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$2.3K

Liquidity

$20.5K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.5pp 7d
1007550250
88¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:08 UTC
updated 07:08:59 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-08Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $20.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5440.9h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 88¢.

Biggest hourly move: +5.0pp at May 15, 21:00 UTC (to 92¢).

Show top 8 of 12 hourly moves
  • May 16, 20:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 90¢
  • May 16, 18:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 89¢
  • May 16, 10:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 90¢
  • May 16, 00:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 92¢
  • May 15, 23:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 92¢
  • May 15, 21:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 92¢
  • May 15, 13:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 89¢
  • May 15, 12:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 89¢
updated 07:08:59 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 07:08:59 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price). The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Business

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

market cap

Reason

Market-cap ranking markets are Business.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:08:59 GMT, YES is priced at 88% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$2.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $81.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $20.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket