Shameful-Cinnamon
0x4d0121458bb2f96c6440c0f3835d675ad3ce1645
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
157
Open notional
$38.6K
Total PnL
$4.8K
Realised
$2.3K
Win rate
75%
73 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 157- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
3888 shares @ 83.2¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.8K
$553.41
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
2800 shares @ 94.8¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.7K
$18.00
- YES
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
3124 shares @ 30.8¢·now 73.5¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$2.3K
$1.3K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
1993 shares @ 97.2¢·now 98.7¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.0K
$29.67
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
2958 shares @ 73.7¢·now 56.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$-508.37
- NO
Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
1452 shares @ 97.2¢·now 96.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.4K
$-5.03
- YES
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
1972 shares @ 25.5¢·now 56.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$615.95
- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?
1380 shares @ 79.8¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.0K
$-73.19
- NO
Another Canada election called by June 30?
975 shares @ 93.1¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$962.78
$54.77
- YES
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?
1067 shares @ 65.9¢·now 80.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$853.37
$150.38
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Partido Popular (PP) win the Andalusia regional election?$300.00May 18, 04:07 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.68May 18, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.14May 18, 00:16 UTC
- REWARD$5.86May 18, 00:00 UTC
- CONVERSIONNext UK Prime Minister in 2026?$28.00May 17, 20:00 UTC
- CONVERSIONNext UK Prime Minister in 2026?$72.00May 17, 19:59 UTC
- CONVERSIONNext UK Prime Minister in 2026?$170.00May 17, 19:58 UTC
- CONVERSIONNext UK Prime Minister in 2026?$30.00May 17, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$154.00May 17, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$154.00May 17, 19:39 UTC
- MERGEWill Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?$300.00May 17, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$66.00May 17, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$34.00May 17, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill VOX (VOX) win fewer than 13 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?$8.03May 17, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLSpain snap election called in 2026?$58.88May 17, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain snap election called by June 30, 2026?$132.00May 17, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain snap election called by June 30, 2026?$90.00May 17, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$194.80May 17, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$195.00May 17, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$117.11May 17, 15:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $140.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 17:28 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 04:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 73 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".