Oval-Output
0x4dfd481c16d9995b809780fd8a9808e8689f6e4a
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$109.9K
Total PnL
$10.7K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
50308 shares @ 59.6¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$48.0K
$18.1K
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
28271 shares @ 83.3¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.2K
$2.7K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
21394 shares @ 48.5¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.7K
$7.3K
- NO
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?
6000 shares @ 78.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$5.2K
$480.00
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
6463 shares @ 73.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$4.9K
$226.06
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
3120 shares @ 73.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.0K
$761.42
- NO
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
3668 shares @ 61.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$2.7K
$421.85
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
2549 shares @ 77.9¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$-215.03
- NO
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
375 shares @ 63.9¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$356.21
$116.53
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
120000 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-7.2K
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$12.3KMay 2, 17:53 UTC
- REDEEMFrance, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?$1.9KApr 2, 02:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$2.2KMar 21, 14:45 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by March 6?$56.9KMar 12, 06:10 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2?$6.7KMar 5, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$143.4KMar 5, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$2.17Mar 2, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$1.00Mar 2, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$33.52Mar 2, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$2.82Mar 2, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$11.60Mar 2, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$0.07Mar 2, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$1.12Mar 2, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$347.87Mar 2, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$0.33Mar 2, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$218.18Mar 2, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$388.10Mar 2, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$10.7KMar 2, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$23.5KMar 2, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$2.3KMar 2, 05:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $3.6K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 28, 13:59 UTC
- Last active
- May 2, 17:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".