Modest-Moat
0x4e412aa2530d4c67efce696c1cb5d82cf04876a1
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$21.89
Total PnL
$-9.99
Realised
$1.37
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
89 shares @ 9.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$11.14
$3.12
- YES
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?
120 shares @ 5.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$9.00
$3.00
- YES
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?
4 shares @ 16.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.76
$0.12
- YES
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
103 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.67
$-7.54
- YES
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
72 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.32
$-8.34
- CINCINNATI REDS
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
5 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.73
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?$0.64May 19, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?$6.00May 19, 13:18 UTC
- TRADESELLArizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies$1.65May 17, 21:36 UTC
- TRADESELLLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels$2.07May 17, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies$3.44May 17, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels$3.15May 17, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$8.02May 17, 12:59 UTC
- TRADESELLTexas Rangers vs. Houston Astros$3.13May 17, 00:36 UTC
- TRADESELLTexas Rangers vs. Houston Astros$3.34May 16, 23:24 UTC
- TRADESELLPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$1.54May 16, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$4.59May 16, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYTexas Rangers vs. Houston Astros$3.61May 16, 16:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?$0.37May 16, 05:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?$0.81May 16, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?$6.27May 15, 14:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?$4.94May 15, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?$5.91May 15, 11:33 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by May 31, 2026?$1.64May 15, 10:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?$1.79May 14, 23:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?$0.68May 14, 23:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 10, 04:19 UTC
- Last active
- May 19, 14:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".