Defiant-Ascent
0x4f7041dd86eb10e0ddf0c724849ef4bef7ce0ca9
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$5.3K
Total PnL
$1.1K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
1500 shares @ 66.6¢·now 90.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.4K
$357.65
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
1233 shares @ 40.5¢·now 86.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$1.1K
$566.76
- NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$620.00
$120.00
- NO
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
770 shares @ 64.9¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$542.73
$42.73
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
893 shares @ 56.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$451.14
$-48.86
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
435 shares @ 46.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$328.26
$128.26
- YES
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
964 shares @ 41.5¢·now 34.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$327.76
$-72.24
- YES
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
371 shares @ 61.9¢·now 62.5¢·exp May 26, 2026$232.07
$2.07
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
370 shares @ 54.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$209.22
$9.22
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
573 shares @ 34.9¢·now 35.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$202.38
$2.38
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$0.00May 17, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?$0.00May 16, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$26.73May 16, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$507.01May 16, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$500.00May 16, 08:35 UTC
- REDEEMIran closes its airspace by May 15?$1.1KMay 16, 08:29 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?$2.3KMay 16, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$409.36May 14, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$203.20May 11, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?$40.00May 10, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?$2.0KMay 9, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 15?$1000.00May 9, 08:57 UTC
- REDEEMIran closes its airspace by May 8?$1.3KMay 9, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?$1000.00May 8, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$500.00May 6, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$200.00May 6, 09:29 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?$714.29May 6, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$500.00May 5, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 8?$1000.00May 5, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?$100.00May 2, 14:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $550.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 23, 12:24 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 00:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".