PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 26, 2026
Creator

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Probability

63¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$3.3K

Liquidity

$44.0K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 26, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
nato
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+3.0pp 7d
1007550250
63¢
May 11, 2026, 05:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 04:05 UTC
updated 04:05:12 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T04-05Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 26, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 187.9h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 63¢.

Biggest hourly move: +4.0pp at May 16, 05:00 UTC (to 62¢).

Show 5 hourly moves
  • May 16, 09:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 62¢
  • May 16, 08:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 62¢
  • May 16, 07:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 62¢
  • May 16, 06:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 62¢
  • May 16, 05:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 62¢
updated 04:05:12 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 04:05:12 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventTexas Republican Senate Primary Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

republican

Reason

Question text contains "republican" — matched the Politics keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 04:05:12 GMT, YES is priced at 63% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +3.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 26, 2026 (2026-05-26T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$3.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $4.5M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $44.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket