Determined-Valuable
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$643.2K
Total PnL
$67.8K
Realised
$12.1K
Win rate
82%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
120000 shares @ 83.8¢·now 94.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$113.4K
$12.8K
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
90000 shares @ 60.1¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$61.7K
$7.6K
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
75000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 81.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$61.0K
$23.5K
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
90001 shares @ 58.5¢·now 66.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$59.4K
$6.7K
- NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
52499 shares @ 86.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$52.5K
$7.1K
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
53599 shares @ 52.6¢·now 64.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$34.4K
$6.2K
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
48071 shares @ 61.7¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$30.5K
$874.36
- NO
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
30000 shares @ 93.3¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$29.8K
$1.8K
- NO
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
24773 shares @ 74.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$22.8K
$4.5K
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
32984 shares @ 63.8¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.3K
$232.77
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$58.75May 18, 04:54 UTC
- YIELD$8.22May 18, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$18.79May 17, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$70.49May 17, 21:21 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$28.20May 17, 20:56 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$19.04May 17, 19:43 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$147.12May 17, 08:59 UTC
- YIELD$8.22May 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$8.22May 16, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$2.3KMay 15, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$38.30May 15, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$1.50May 15, 03:09 UTC
- YIELD$8.22May 15, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$269.21May 14, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$1.0KMay 14, 10:51 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$12.88May 14, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$2.74May 14, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$4.79May 14, 00:00 UTC
- SPLITWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$75.0KMay 13, 15:58 UTC
- MERGEWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$500.00May 13, 15:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $261.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 12:24 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 04:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".