GeopoliticsExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Probability

7¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$15.0K

Liquidity

$47.7K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

ScannerMarketWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Israeli government
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.5pp 7d
1007550250
7¢
May 11, 2026, 09:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 08:56 UTC
updated 08:56:46 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T08-56Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1023.1h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.

Biggest hourly move: -3.5pp at 23:00 (to 7¢).

Show top 8 of 10 hourly moves
  • 08:56 · -3.0pp → 7¢
  • 07:00 · -3.5pp → 7¢
  • 01:00 · -3.0pp → 7¢
  • 23:00 · -3.5pp → 7¢
  • 15:00 · -3.0pp → 7¢
  • 13:00 · -3.0pp → 7¢
  • 11:00 · -3.0pp → 7¢
  • 10:00 · -3.0pp → 7¢
updated 08:56:46 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 08:56:46 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

7
Same eventIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Geopolitics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

israel

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "israel" — matched the Geopolitics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:56:46 GMT, YES is priced at 7% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -3.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$15.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $231.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $47.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket