Third-Manufacturing
0x717a8b61716626a8f829bc4a7da122244ed1977c
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$959.67
Total PnL
$-611.92
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
2481 shares @ 23.3¢·now 16.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$396.88
$-181.11
- YES
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
1595 shares @ 28.4¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$263.22
$-189.78
- YES
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?
537 shares @ 19.8¢·now 27.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$144.86
$38.86
- YES
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
613 shares @ 18.9¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$82.76
$-33.24
- YES
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?
373 shares @ 17.6¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$39.20
$-26.40
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?
1226 shares @ 3.2¢·now 1.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.29
$-15.71
- YES
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
274 shares @ 27.0¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$9.46
$-64.54
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
583 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-140.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?$16.00May 12, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$200.00May 12, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? $200.00May 12, 16:54 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?$0.00May 11, 12:50 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$416.67May 11, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$140.00Apr 8, 12:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?$59.40Apr 8, 12:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? $80.74Apr 8, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?$46.00Mar 27, 11:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?$0.00Mar 19, 16:53 UTC
- REDEEMIran Strike on Israel by January 31?$0.00Mar 19, 16:52 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: Khamenei$0.00Mar 19, 16:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$45.10Mar 18, 07:26 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$0.73Mar 1, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$176.00Feb 28, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: Khamenei$236.00Feb 28, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: Khamenei$44.00Feb 24, 18:25 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?$43.41Feb 22, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?$115.00Feb 20, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine election called by June 30, 2026?$74.00Feb 12, 09:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $73.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 16, 16:49 UTC
- Last active
- May 12, 16:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".