Improbable-Responsibility
0x7ac83882979ccb5665cea83cb269e558b55077cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$79.3K
Total PnL
$16.4K
Realised
$12.9K
Win rate
76%
125 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?
5229 shares @ 88.5¢·now 99.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$5.2K
$553.14
- NO
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
6000 shares @ 70.6¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$4.6K
$355.54
- YES
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia?
3930 shares @ 98.6¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$3.9K
$25.52
- YES
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?
3324 shares @ 51.1¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$2.4K
$710.11
- YES
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
2856 shares @ 80.1¢·now 79.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.3K
$-16.12
- NO
Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?
2085 shares @ 90.5¢·now 97.7¢·exp Sep 8, 2026$2.0K
$149.11
- NO
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?
2285 shares @ 67.2¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.0K
$475.56
- YES
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
2679 shares @ 57.5¢·now 69.0¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$1.8K
$308.70
- NO
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
1837 shares @ 90.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.7K
$77.01
- NO
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?
2013 shares @ 82.3¢·now 79.3¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$1.6K
$-61.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?$1.50May 18, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?$2.59May 18, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Garrett Mason win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?$7.70May 18, 02:31 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$5.17May 18, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.13May 18, 00:16 UTC
- REWARD$6.53May 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?$261.00May 17, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arya Azma win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election?$19.36May 17, 20:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?$8.24May 17, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?$1.24May 17, 04:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mike Kennealy win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election?$0.00May 17, 04:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mike Kennealy win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election?$0.00May 17, 04:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mike Kennealy win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election?$0.00May 17, 04:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$118.12May 17, 01:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$84.64May 17, 01:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$83.38May 17, 01:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$292.52May 17, 01:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$3.90May 17, 01:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$2.93May 17, 01:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$2.93May 17, 01:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $79.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 03:08 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 04:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 125 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".