PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Nov 23, 2025
Creator

Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?

Probability

27¢

1h

+4.3pp

24h

-22.1pp

24h Vol

$223.04

Liquidity

$2.2K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Nov 23, 2025
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
cne.gw
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (24.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-28.9pp 7d
1007550250
27¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:03 UTC
updated 06:03:18 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-03Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 22pp over 24h

    Now 27¢; +4.3pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 24.8¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 06:03Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW

Price movement

-22.1pp over the last 24h, now 27¢.

Biggest hourly move: -26.4pp at 05:00 (to 23¢).

Show top 8 of 28 hourly moves
  • 06:03 · -22.8pp → 27¢
  • 05:00 · -26.4pp → 23¢
  • 03:00 · -13.0pp → 37¢
  • 02:00 · -16.6pp → 34¢
  • 00:00 · -26.0pp → 24¢
  • 23:00 · -20.8pp → 29¢
  • 19:00 · -10.1pp → 43¢
  • May 15, 06:00 UTC · +10.1pp → 53¢
updated 06:03:18 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:03:18 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventGuinea-Bissau Presidential Election
Category · Politics

Market Description

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

presidential election

Reason

Election markets must always classify as Politics, never as Sports — Roadmap §3 invariant 2.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:03:18 GMT, YES is priced at 27% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -22.1pp in the last 24 hours, +4.3pp in the last hour, and -28.9pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Nov 23, 2025 (2025-11-23T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$223.04 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $48.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 24.8¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket