Fearful-Independence
0x8190816855b676a5efd8c5b344135a72337bb247
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
133
Open notional
$117.7K
Total PnL
$-19.0K
Realised
$-4.8K
Win rate
61%
67 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 133- NO
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
26036 shares @ 85.3¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.0K
$836.65
- YES
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
17664 shares @ 89.2¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.2K
$402.67
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
8216 shares @ 87.2¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.3K
$107.49
- NO
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
6995 shares @ 83.7¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.3K
$405.64
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
6500 shares @ 91.1¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.2K
$282.87
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
4000 shares @ 93.6¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.9K
$154.12
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?
3900 shares @ 95.2¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.8K
$80.43
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
3500 shares @ 96.4¢·now 98.7¢·exp May 31, 2026$3.5K
$79.20
- NO
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
4046 shares @ 81.8¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.2K
$-131.60
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
3550 shares @ 89.5¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.1K
$-37.43
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?$19.14May 18, 04:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?$55.24May 18, 04:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?$9.57May 18, 03:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$34.40May 18, 03:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$20.28May 18, 03:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?$64.42May 18, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$10.92May 18, 03:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$493.50May 18, 02:08 UTC
- YIELD$1.75May 18, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$5.08May 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?$127.22May 17, 23:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?$187.20May 17, 23:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?$187.20May 17, 23:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?$280.80May 17, 23:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?$68.75May 17, 23:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?$4.35May 17, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?$4.35May 17, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?$267.00May 17, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$456.00May 17, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$9.50May 17, 21:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $143.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 16:53 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 04:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 67 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".